SMALL AND HIGHLY STYLIZED MODEL OF CORRUPTION IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN BRAZIL

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.38116/ppp72art10

Palavras-chave:

corruption, public policy, public procurement, system dynamics, Brazil

Resumo

This research aims to present and analyze a small and highly stylized System Dynamics (SD) model of corruption in Brazil and its potential impacts on fraud in public procurement. It focuses on two key feedback loops: 1) The impact of corruption on the level of economic investments in the country, impacting anti-corruption economic pressure and consequently the effectiveness of the judicial system, and 2) The impact of corruption on income concentration and consequently on the level of active political participation of the population. The SD model was calibrated based on the Brazilian Corruption Perception Index. A scenario analysis was carried out to study the impact of these variables on corruption. Policy implications are discussed. Despite having low internal validity, the model reflects key determinants of the dynamics of corruption as suggested by the literature and might also be useful as an education tool for policymakers.

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Biografia do Autor

  • Adilson da Hora Sampaio, Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA)

    This article is a tribute to Adilson da Hora Sampaio, who was health management analyst and official auctioneer of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz).

  • Paulo Figueiredo, Escola de Administração da UFBA

    Adjunct professor at the School of Administration of the Federal University of Bahia (Universidade Federal da Bahia, UFBA). Member of the Graduate Center in Administration (Núcleo de Pós-Graduação em Administração – NPGA/UFBA).

  • Luciano Moura Costa Doria, Universidade Estadual do Sudoeste da Bahia (UESB)

    Assistant professor of the State University of Southwest Bahia (Universidade Estadual do Sudoeste da Bahia – Uesb). Professor of the Independent College of the Northeast (Faculdade Independente do Nordeste – Fainor).

  • Renelson Sampaio, Serviço Nacional de Aprendizagem Industrial (Senai)

    Member of the committee of the Bahia State Research Support Foundation (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado da Bahia – Fapesb). Full professor of the National Service for Industrial Training (Serviço Nacional de Aprendizagem Industrial – Senai) Cimatec.

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Capa PPP 72

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Publicado

02-04-2026

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n. 72 (2025): PLANEJAMENTO E POLÍTICAS PÚBLICAS - PPP

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SMALL AND HIGHLY STYLIZED MODEL OF CORRUPTION IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN BRAZIL. (2026). Planejamento E Políticas Públicas, 72. https://doi.org/10.38116/ppp72art10